Steve Kornacki is turning his attention toward the Granite State as the race for New Hampshire’s open Senate seat begins to tighten. While current polling suggests that Democrats still hold an advantage, Republican strategists are increasingly confident that the seat is within their reach come November. The contest has become a focal point for national GOP efforts to reclaim control of the upper chamber, transforming what once looked like a safe blue stronghold into a genuine battleground.
At the center of this political storm are Karishma Manzur and Chris Pappas, two candidates representing starkly different visions for the state. As part of his ongoing analysis in The Data Dive, Kornacki is peeling back the layers of voter registration trends and precinct level shifts to understand why Republicans believe they can flip the seat. By focusing on specific counties and cities, he aims to identify whether there is a growing appetite for change among independent voters who often decide these tight races in New England.
The stakes extend far beyond local policy, as this single seat could prove pivotal in determining which party holds the majority in Congress following the 2026 midterms. With every new set of data emerging from early voting patterns and internal polls, it becomes clearer that neither side can afford complacency. For now, while Democrats remain favorites on paper, the narrowing gap indicates that New Hampshire may be one of the most consequential tipping points in the upcoming election cycle.
